Will expat assignments slowdown in 2026?

 

We will probably not see a big drop in global mobility overall, but a continued slowdown in traditional long-term expatriate assignments in 2026, replaced by more short-term, flexible and localized mobility models. Long-term, multi-year expatriate assignments are likely to be flat or have a modest decline.

Projecting into 2026 is plausible but speculative, however, major surveys from 2024–2025 show cost pressures, economic/geopolitical uncertainty and rising compliance complexity are pushing companies to rethink traditional assignments rather than expand them.

KPMG’s 2025 benchmarking commentary flags these forces as reshaping assignment models. KPMG

Mercer’s 2025 mobility research finds most organisations expect stable or only modest changes in mobility volumes and highlights cost reduction and productivity as top priorities i.e., firms are trimming expense-heavy options. Mercer Mobility Exchange+1

Specific Mercer survey findings: only ~18% of organisations expected an increase in long-term assignments in 2025 while a majority reported volumes were stable,  a signal that long-term expatriation is stagnating. Mercer Mobility Exchange

At the same time, specialist firms (AIRINC, ECA, RelocateMag and others) report growing volumes of alternative mobility activity, short assignments, project-based moves, one-way transfers, international hires, and business travel and argue LTAs (Long Term Assignments)  remain strategically important but are being redesigned.

How this translates into 2026

  • Traditional long-term expat assignments: multi-year, fully sponsored expatriations are likely to remain flat or decline modestly in 2026 as employers prioritize cost, localization and speed.
  • Alternative forms of mobility (short-term international projects, commuter/roster models, one-way transfers, locally hired international talent, cross-border gig/contracting and remote/hybrid arrangements) are likely to increase as firms seek flexibility and lower total cost of assignment. Mercer Mobility Exchange+1
  • Strategic exceptions: where in-person leadership development, critical skills transfer, M&A integrations or regulatory/localization needs require it, companies will still use long-term expatriates but they will justify them more rigorously.
  • Macro economic conditions and cost-cutting priorities (inflation, recession risk). Mercer Mobility Exchange
  • Talent shortages in specific markets/skills, which may force more cross-border moves despite cost concerns. ECA International
  • Regulatory and immigration complexity; companies often shift to alternative models to reduce visa/compliance exposure. KPMG
  • Remote/hybrid work acceptance, when roles can be done remotely, employers prefer virtual mobility or hiring locally. ags-relocation.com+1
  • Internal strategy: firms that treat mobility as strategic (talent pipeline, leadership development) will keep LTAs where value is clear. AIRShare

Bottom line

Total movement of people internationally will not collapse in 2026 but the mix will continue shifting away from costly long-term expatriations toward more flexible, short-term, localized and virtual mobility solutions, with long-term assignments reserved for clear strategic needs.

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Brid is a native English speaker, fluent in French, a graduate in both International Business Communication and in Instructional Design. She is also accredited (TEFL) to teach English as a foreign language. Her professional experience spans over 20 years in an international environment, working in CAC 40 communication groups and as a consultant in Executive Search.